My view has always been that gold will continue to move within a range with the lower bound of that range increasing year on year to keep its price marginally above inflation. The relevance of inflation is to keep mining the metal and new discovery of the metal viable. I accept that there continues to be a desire to keep a small amount of wealth stored in gold and there is a certain allure to holding gold, a sustained upward trajectory in price (no longer range bound) would require a big increase in demand. I can't see where that big increase in demand would come from but clearly a drip feed of new supply is needed.
The next 12 months? My long bias in gold is indefinite; however I have short time periods where I would short gold - in anticipation of it dropping to the lower bound of a range.
I am certain that gold will not have a place in the mainstream monetary system. Technology has moved on and with it I expect an ever increasing role of digital stores of wealth and ledger recording of 'who owes what'. I deliberately refrain from using the word debt as I believe it induces up erroneous thinking. Sovereign debt is a different concept to corporate/personal debt.
As for gold. Currently, it is tethered to interest rates, therein lies the key to what will happen with gold in the next 12 months - whatever occurs I cannot see much upside from here. I refer to upside relatively speaking, so 10% either way I would not consider significant. If there is clear signals that rate cuts have halted and inflation is creeping in then I can easily foresee a retrace back to 1300.
