Gold stock sentiment indicator and nCoV
The indicator is continuing to climb.
Impetus will come from gold as a safe haven. Not there yet.
There is evidence of safe haven from defensive stock moves and the biggie, the USD.
Both gold and the USD are rising. Does not happen very often.
The initial reversal suggests good momentum.
According to my charting both GOR and NST have broken out of consolidation. Blue sky for both of these.
For me this is highly encouraging.
The nCoV analysis is below the chart. It is disturbing so you may choose to ignore it.
I am loathe and somewhat sickened to present the information this way but as a technical analyst this is the only way to do it.
The ship quarantine in Japan provides an opportunity to really understand the effectiveness of quarantine measures and the real stats for this virus.
Watch closely how this pans out. An experiment in human misery with live subjects in a controlled environment.
Based on the stats I currently have, I can make the following observations.
34,878 infections
724 deaths
2,085 recovered
6,106 severe
Apparently the rate of infection has fallen from 20% to 11% per day. This is good news.
The problem with aligning these stats is they all have different lags.
If you are critical you have one of two options – die or recover.
When you recover you do not become a recovered stat for some time after you may have become a death stat.
At the moment, the fatality rate is a simple death/infections as a %. Sits at and is quoted as 2%. This is absolute rubbish.
Here is another way to estimate the fatality rate death/(death + recovered) as a %. A disturbingly high 25.7%.
Due to the lags, the truth is somewhere between. My guess is around 10%. We have the math to work this out but without valid data authorities can obfuscate the truth.
They would now have enough data such as time taken to die or recover.
They will not want to panic the world population.
Problem is we may be totally unprepared and lulled into a false sense of security.
What happens on this ship will tell you more than the authorities.
I notice today we have one reported case in Cambodia.
None from Africa.
These two locations have in common high illiteracy, poor communications and health systems and high influx of Chinese workers.
A breakout in either of these locations could be disastrous.
Comparisons with seasonal flu are a crock. There is no comparison. The Spanish flu is probably a better comparison.
Watch the Baltic shipping indices to follow trade volumes. Already collapsed.
Germany is on the brink of recession.
There must be a bank or two in trouble or a liquidity crunch – repo market tells us at least this much.
There is a belief massive money printing will have no repercussions. Money not going to the people anyway.
Goods shortages will begin to appear as trade and people movement dry up.
Keep an eye out for pockets of inflation. If inflation happens, it will happen QUICKLY.
I will not be buying any dips.
All I can suggest – be prepared.
I might take the family prospecting.
