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Joe you have reaffirmed much of what I have already stated.Macau...

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Pointyfigures

1,639 Posts.

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13/02/20

15:52

Post #: 42916244
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Originally posted by AverageJoe: ↑

Extrapolating from a graph is just that, based on certain assumed factors. The quarantine is Hubei and surrounding provinces are stringent and draconian. Ends justify means. No doubt the Chinese now realised that the initial 'cover up' did cost them the controlability of the spread so they are playing catch up. We saw the immediate reaction on USDCNY once the infection rate spiked from a different calculation definition etc.

When in doubt stay out. I have been thinking about this viral attack for quite sometime and the markets general are much more informed than myself. Early birds took the immediate opportunity when the selling momentum gathered speed. Could this be just the dumb and uninformed money? From where equity valuation was at the time I suspect just play safe monetising big windfalls option rather than just wholesale panic selling.

We will find out tonight as US/European markets reacts.

Gold is catching some early bids as expected but within a tight trading range so not much event driven flight to safety. In fact USD, Yen, CHF are the safety plays including bonds. Personally these are just noises while it happens and is not sustainable for gold valuation in USD. Oz remains under pressure as expected and maybe we are close to technical recession with quite a few direct very vulnerable sectors hat are highly Chinese dependent. Farmers, Insurance companies, Tourism, Education are just some facing direct hits and if this virus prolong, it is bye bye to the small family owned business. Restaurant food business are next if not already getting hammered and by then foor traffic in shopping centres will trickle to essential requirement meaning food shopping. How about cinemas and casinos?

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Joe you have reaffirmed much of what I have already stated.
Macau casinos were asked to shut down on the 4th Feb.
Like a friendly punt on the number of infections by the end of the month?
1 million in the first week of March.
Punters will be told to buy the dip.
How else can the big boys offload and slip into bonds and currencies?
Not available to the average Joe.
The safe haven will be ETFs and gold stocks.
And of course the usual defensive stocks.
The signs are already there as you have noticed.
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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