Of course you can't stimulate a company in lockdown with zero revenue but you can have its back with support - keeping companies afloat. But we are a long way from ground zero, which is what your comment suggests. More people are working than not, and there is survival first then stimulus to crank up the pace when returning to something like normality. The virus situation is almost certainly going to deteriorate before we see the tide turning. And with it, more disruption to work patterns.
The point I am making: first, there is limitless amount of financial support and stimulus our government can provide. However, the natural handbrake is goods and services still churning out to meet the demand. Now, if there are severe shortages, yet cash available in the form of handouts and support mechanisms, then inflation is inevitable as people with cash bid up toilet rolls. If the shortages scenario came to bear then we are in big trouble and it will not matter what you have, gold or anything, when there is nothing to buy with it.
I happen to have faith in the ingenuity of man, and through a combination of medical science and administration, the virus will be put back in the bottle. As for timing, signs that the virus is under control is what will trigger the market. Virus under control, people back to normal work patterns, and a system awash with stimulus to kick start operations - then watch the market run.
Nobody knows with certainty about anything, if we did then the world is one's oyster. Doc has taken advice from respected sources and studied summaries from key reports and concluded that the best case is a turning tide by June this year. At that point life returning to normality, people with cash to spend, companies survived and cranking back up from support mechanisms, stimulus to turbo boost production and jobs. Nobody will give a damn about negative growth and no profits in the next set of reports, investors will weigh-up up the profit bonanza coming next year and will want to get on-board quickly. If that plays out I expect then you will see dramatic 10% rises in stock markets day after day is we have on the way down.
If the virus cannot be put back in the bottle withing the next three months then it suggests administrative controls have not worked and batten down the hatches for a protracted and very difficult time for everyone.
As an aside, I would be interested to hear how a global society would cope with this type of situation with a view of only spent what you have earned and policy restricted by how much gold is in the vaults. It doesn't take much thinking, absolute disaster with people out on the streets and companies closing their doors due to inability to support operations and jobs.
