gold, page-77165

The expected sell-off was worse than expected.

10% fall in nearly all producers.

Interestingly the juniors held on till late in the trading day before they also began to fall.

Looks like we are heading back towards 55% as leading indicators have plunged to the high 30’s, a level not seen since the beginning of the month.

Today may see more of the juniors sell down while producers take a breather.

Last night as futures were getting sold down, backwardation increased and was more than $10 at one point.

Pricing is starting to highlight supply/demand discrepancies in this market.

COT data may be beginning to reflect what the market is indicating. Long positions have been pretty flat for the last month.

End-of-month rebalancing is now the focus.

We may not see a recovery in POG till next week.

I suspect the perceived strength of the XJO/DOW may be luring investors away from the gold sector, compounding falls.

The AUD is setting up a pretty high base so a breakout is possible. If it does, next resistance is up around 71.5c according to my charts.

The AUD may perform quite well over the medium term. In many respects, though not good for gold company profits, is good for a decent move higher in US$POG.

Silver is interesting and though it appears to be taking the lead, it is only playing catch-up as the ratio heads back below 100.