GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

With comments like "gold goes into orbit" you are destined for...

  1. 4,679 Posts.
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    With comments like "gold goes into orbit" you are destined for disappointment.

    A very easy to understand acid test is this:

    To propel gold into 'orbit' there needs to be extraordinary demand. Why would professionals across the globe line the pockets of miners with profits that exceed profits obtained in any industry ever! Because that is what would happen with AISC remaining fairly stable but a gold price of 2 - 3 - 5k - 10k and more, referring to the mad predictions.

    Industries that offer outsized profits would normally attract competition and that would induce an equilibrium as supply meets demand to keep the price reasonable. However, gold is limited supply and therefore new entrants, mining in a volume required to keep pace with a rising price is not possible. So we are back to "is supply essential"? Can industry operate without gold - or with gold at its current rate of supply? The answer is resounding, industry is not crying out for more to make products and holding gold for that sake of it is not essential. Therefore we are back to a theoretical limit on profits that gold miners can expect to achieve and that theoretical limit is governed by what margin professionals are prepared to pay for a commodity that is not essential.

    Bottom line. There isn't a fund or a trading house anywhere that is willfully going to pay whatever it takes to own gold just to line the pockets of gold miners. There will be periodic spikes but its natural course is a price that enables a steady stream of ongoing supply. That steady stream is dependent on miners earning a reasonable margin above their AISC - and nothing more.

    Forget 3 - 4 - 5 - 10,000 dollars for gold. It is fairytale stuff propagated by sellers of gold. Fundamentals and market dynamics of a commodity do not support extraordinary profits for primary producers. Never mind those fanciful figures, Doc cannot foresee gold at $2 for a good many years yet. It will get to $2k eventually but not in the short term. A regression to its mean - around $1360 - is the more likely short term path for gold.
    Last edited by Dr.Who: 07/06/20
 
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