London (CNN Business)The latest US jobs report is expected to show that America's labor market continued to bounce back in June as businesses reopened and employees returned to work.
But the data won't reflect cracks in the recovery that have emerged in recent days as the Covid-19 outlook deteriorates. Goldman Sachs estimates that over half of the US population has now seen reopening plans reversed or put on hold as cases spike. On Wednesday, the country logged a record 50,203 new infections in a single day.What's happening: Economists surveyed by Refinitiv expect to learn Thursday that the US economy added 3 million jobs in June, a record high after 2.5 million positions were added in May. That would nudge the unemployment rate down to 12.3% from 13.3%.But the survey data, which is collected mid-month, won't reflect the wave of fresh closures and delays that were announced in late June.Movie theaters like AMC are pushing back reopening plans to later in the month. Apple has shut retail stores again in states like Texas, Florida and Arizona that are struggling with their case loads. Reuters reports that McDonald's will delay the reopening of its dine-in service by 21 days.Citigroup said such changes are reflected in high-frequency data, which has plateaued in recent days.The bank points to the OpenTable index, which tracks seated dining at restaurants, as one indication of trouble. After showing improvement in the United States as of June 21, with seatings down 41% compared to last year, dining out appears to have fallen back. Seatings were down 66% on June 22. On Tuesday, they remained 62% lower than in 2019.Bank of America also said it found "suggestive evidence" that economic activity and mobility is down in California, Florida, Texas and Georgia. Its economists recommend keeping an eye on regional data even as national data appears to be edging higher.
