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Rleonars

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28/07/20

15:01

Post #: 46128519
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Originally posted by speculator101: ↑

Hey Pointy, great analysis as always.
I note that about 2 hours ago, the POG price was heavily hit, which has caused the entire sector to remove all the gains at the start of the day.
There are so many differing views on twitter about the POG, although I feel the consensus is that we are 'due a pull back', which seems to be based on the T/A, but.. I struggle with that, because its not about the POG in USD, its about the USD index (although I do not that it is now hitting a trend line), so... the waters are murky right now.

Yet..in the end, I just ask myself, will the USD move higher or lower.... there may be spikes higher, but... surely, the trend is going to be lower... for longer. i.e. Gold price in fiat USD, is just beginning its run.

I can imagine many are taking money/profits off the table, yet, the gold sector is only just starting to see the higher prices from Dec/Jan this year flowing into their bottom lines. Each quarter going forward (due to hedging prices either increasing or tapering off), producers are going to see higher and higher average prices, yet their costs are mostly stagnating (due to a variety of reasons).

Its not like the gold sector is 'inflated', surely? The pump has barely even been attached! Compared to say, Tesla.. etc.

Your thoughts?

Expand

What I find interesting is the market is not pricing in ZIRP or NIRP in the US...

Futures markets have the US rate stuck on 0-0.25% out till March 2021, unprecedented...

It's as though they are completely reliant on the Fed printing to infinity and have given up adjusting interest rates completely...

What does this mean - that the only tool the Fed has left is to print money ?

Surely the only effect this can have is to reduce the USD? And increase the POG?

US 10 year bond yields showing no indication of any recovery as far as they eye can see...

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
9 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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