GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

Probably about a decade ago when I got interested in gold and...

  1. 42,531 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1024
    Probably about a decade ago when I got interested in gold and its fundamental puzzle to try and have a general understanding of how the global economic and monetary system works, I came across many commentary that refer to US inflating itself out of their rapid debt built up. The idea that it could maintain the history of never defaulting on its debt mantra by simply 'print' its way to its foreign debt obligations through the bond market was an eye opener to how the monetary system works. We are now experiencing a decade+ of such accomodative monetary policy as US politics of free market capitalism has diverged from its monetary/economic policies going the socialistic route!

    I fast forward to current and compare their system to China, a socialistic political structure but with a much more free market capitalism economic model that is still powering along opposite to US economic issues. Maybe I am reading a one sided bias commentary on China or AM I? I suspect China post GFC realised that they must diversify their asset class like any prudent retail or corporate citizen managing money, perhaps this applies to their trading currency transactions with other than the US? Iran/Venezuela both are oil rich nations but sanctioned out of using any USD transactions through SWIFT international foreign exchange have been chocked financially to near death. China/Russia have both been facing US ire in different degrees and can be restricted from using USD if push comes to shove in the future.

    I have not fact checked but heard many times that US total debt and future social security obligations is in the vicinity of $175T, an insane amount and larger than the GDP! There is no way in hell it can commit to paying down its debt significantly without destroying the value of the USD! As you commented, a slight increase in cost of capital in a condition when the real economy is smashed by Covid19 partial shutdown on top of pre-covid19 economic malaise, I don't really know what the solutions or outcomes really are. Uncharted conditions so the peripheral economic community are now jumping on the MMT bandwagon because it offer a less doom and gloom scenario to provide solutions, at least in the theory although MMT is neither a theory nor modern!

    This HSBC article I just googled from reading some twitter chatter does provide some evidence that the GLD SPDR trust may not be what it appears from a risk side of things. I check HSBC chart and it is not as bad as DBK but it is heading into the GFC low! IF they are custodian to GLD SPDR gold holding and in trouble, they will get BoE support but could there be an issue with gold price?

    When bond/gold prices both rallies in sink together with risk equity markets, what does that really mean? During March panic sell off, all 3 asset class were also selling off in sink. Who is ultimately correct?
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add GOLD (COMEX) to my watchlist
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.