Fantastic work Pointy. I've been busy lately hence my late reply. These plots are definitely revealing and provide great insight.
"Note the significant divergence in POG's post-capitulation in March. There was no capitulation in A$POG"There was a coincident fall in AUDUSD at that time, which would explain the unchanged APOG. Apart from that I don't usually follow APOG directly so I'm not aware of other factors.
"Of particular interest is the period around Dec, 2019. A spike in sentiment was followed by a good run in A$POG but sentiment responded to US$POG moves. It also appears sentiment is more closely tied to A$POG as you can see by the dip in June, 2020. This would be predominantly juniors"This is very interesting. I think the SENT is plotting the net effect of USPOG and APOG at any given time. Depending on market psychology and algo's which no doubt account for AUD, at times the USPOG may be the dominant factor whilst at other times APOG may be. For example, the capitulation of USPOG and SENT in Mar 2020, despite APOG remaining unchanged.
Then at other times like you pointed out in Jun 2020, the SENT was correlated to a falling APOG despite USPOG holding. Having said this, there was in fact a small dip in USPOG in Mar 2020 coincident with the large fall in APOG, which resulted in a large dip in SENT. It shows that coincident moves in APOG and USPOG results in large moves in SENT, which seems logical.
Overall, I think SENT will primarily track USPOG, unless moves in AUD are severe enough, in which case AUD will primarily drive SENT.
"Going by the data, you could say sentiment leads the gold price."
In my experience I think commodity prices are the driver. Maybe the APOG effect makes it seem like SENT leads gold price? You may be right however, there could be more to this.
Regarding KIN plot, this is interesting because explorers have a whole lot of operational risks and milestones that drive stock price in addition to POG. Eg good or poor drill results, or events associated with mine construction for explorers turning producers. Therefore I think plots of juniors vs APOG or USPOG will vary greatly, and consistent correlations may be hard to derive.
Regarding the NST plot vs USPOG and APOG. This is great because it clearly shows the high beta of NST. NST overshoots both USPOG and APOG when they exhibit coincident directional moves. To be expected given NST's low float.
Great work, I shall look at these some more. Cheers!
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