gold, page-88589

Gold stock sentiment indicator.
Time for a review of where gold and the currencies sit.
First up, the AUD is yet to break out. I am not sure it will for a little while yet, given the impasse with China and looming trade spat.
Our dollar is joined at the hip with commodities. These are doing well ATM but has the new up cycle really begun? Probably, but the world is in a strange place.
This trend has been in place since March, 2012 when commodity prices began to noticeably decline.
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The USD is also having a trend battle.
The short term trend goes at 91.60 then we have the longer term trend on this chart which began with the low of 73 back in May 2011.
91.37 is a reversal but not a breakdown. 87.82 is when I would kiss the dollar goodbye. Could be a long time coming.
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A$POG is sitting on support on my short term chart.
Be interesting to see if this trend holds as it is only a couple of years old – since August 2018, the beginning of the stock market correction that everyone seems to have forgotten.
My longer term chart has support kicking in around A$2,360, another $60 lower.
Funny how this trend marries with the 200 dma (US) as support.
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Before Iget into Fridays’ activity, there are a couple of other Items I bring to yourattention.

Rare earthprices are on a bender.

Thisarticle explains why. Could result in a buy the rumour, sell the news marketresponse but there is more to it than that.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1208106.shtml

Othercommodities on the list include tungsten, tin, antimony, niobium, titanium and cobalt.

This is noshort term, knee jerk reaction.

The writingwas on the wall with tariffs imposed on copper concentrates and we could expectthe same for other concentrates like lithium, nickel, lead and zinc.

Indonesiawas given a heads up and required metal producers to build refining capacity.

Treatingconcentrates is polluting and can generate large volumes of toxic waste.

A lot ofthese refining facilities in China are state-owned enterprises.

Like toknow what is happening to these businesses? They are not getting bailed out.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Bond-defaults-show-bailouts-over-for-China-s-state-owned-enterprises

Join thedots.

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Though I anticipated that China at any point could use REEs as a trade weapon, the big one is US treasuries.
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The secondis just as important and will have huge impacts.

The AFRrecently published this article which will have serious implications for Aussietrade.

https://www.copyright link/policy/energy-and-climate/morrison-left-exposed-to-climate-damage-by-biden-win-20201109-p56cpv

Theimplications for the oil price should not be underestimated.

Australiahas emission levels 3 times the world average and higher than the US if using aper head of population metric.

Any tariffimposed by these metrics will make our coal and iron ore far less competitivethan say Brazil.

Then wheredo we stand?

This willgive you some idea of where we sit.

https://ourworldindata.org/per-capita-co2.
There are two ways Australia could encourage home grown investment in our innate ability to innovate and invent.
At least $1.2T of super funds are invested in overseas companies. Then there are bonds and currencies the funds are invested in.
In the meantime, foreign companies own our natural monopolies – ports, poles and wires, railroads, etc.
There is something wrong here.
If even half of the offshored money was invested in Australia then the cries for more foreign investment can probably be ignored.
The other key area is government procurement.
We pay up front and years in advance (off-the-plan) for practically everything military, aircraft and many other major purchases.
Our government funds overseas R&D and industrial development at the expense of our own industries.
This applies to governments at all levels.
We need some major policy shifts and overhauls and the right investment frameworks, including taxation.
For any government to claim that to do anything is going to raise taxes is an excuse to do nothing.
Even little old me can think of a few ways to get things done that are self-funding or brings in investor funds.
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The world is changing and we are asleep at the wheel.
In the meantime there are quite a few very interesting Australian companies developing new technologies in the commodities space (value adding and processing).
In Australia, not many of these companies make it, for whatever reason.
Their time in the sun is coming.
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Back to thegold sector.

Thesell-off in POG was basically ignored with the XAU and HUI both rising onFriday.

Not surehow our market will respond and we seem to often go in our own direction.

Davereckons this was nothing more than a paper sell down to take out the longs. Iagree.

https://goldseek.com/article/fake-news-engulfs-gold-and-silver-markets

They mayhave to go a little further to around the $1,750 mark to clean it ourthoroughly.

Thesentiment indicator also seems to indicate the sell-off is contrived.

Here it is.

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