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shopboy

112 Posts.

26

10/02/21

08:33

Post #: 50845978
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Originally posted by Pointyfigures: ↑

How the gold market shapes up is really worth a profound analysis.
Difficult to find like minds to bounce ideas off and this thread is not always productive, both positive and negative.

The development 'S' curve in the green space is, from my perspective, now into the boom cycle of continuous and ongoing growth.
Failed EV's and commodity suppliers seem to have run their course. Technology has matured.
The need to subsidise the sector to encourage investment is almost over.
An excellent opportunity to spread risk.

I have put a lot of thought into the likely outcome of BASEL lll.
Specs will be forced out of the market and probably the hedge funds as well.
The bulk of the remaining players will be bullion banks, bullion retailers and producers. Believe it or not this is the original target group when the scheme was originally designed.
Same goes for the rest of the commodity futures markets.
There is every likelihood will will see price discovery. If the shelves are emptied, price goes up unlike back in March.
Another obvious but difficult question - what should be the true price of gold?
If you were being forced out of this market but still want to participate, what would you do?
The obvious answer is getting your hands on producer stocks at the lowest possible price. Owning physical gives you the opportunity to participate in the futures market. Not many alternatives.
My opinion only and let's see how it unfolds.

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Thanks for,your thoughts on Basel 3.i have tried to frame my research on this with the expected question - what will happen to the price of gold?

Will those forced out of the tent be proved the ones who manipulated the price lower, or higher, both, or neither?

If it's true that China and Russia are or have stockpiled gold their interests may float to the top, but how will they exert this influence?

It's very difficult to reduce the question to a simple 'higher' or 'lower'. If you can, then good on you, but it still seems to me there are macro factors (debt, CBDCs etc) that could impact demand, or price. So the probable answer is we'll wait and see, but removing some of the naked shorts is a good idea and removing the haircut is positive too. But it seems to me Basel 3 is like looking into the Robert Maxwell bankruptcy - the more you look, the more you find.
If I have any lucid thoughts I'll post them up for general amusement

Shopboy
5 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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