Well that was a long night indeed- but I find it better to see new conferences first hand than to rely on media reports
so fed has made a big signal that it now sees two rate increases in 2023 rather than one in 2024
some super stupid questions during conference - one was - no one is really talking about how economy is going to slow next year according to fed forecasts - well that journo had to get some basics explained - grow at 7 percent this year and 3 next year it’s still
Growing and we didn’t have any 3 percent full years since CFC so we will take it and be happy with it
so marlet reaction was swift and markets moved on dot plots which were actually totally different to what the fed members had been saying of late
markets then. Rallied back to almost green led by Nasdaq ( which went green ) - bit this was all David teller speaking to the retail crowd via “ Robin Hood “ conference where he said equities place to be- especially faang- well he cleaned up and the spike eased and it all went down again in last hour - he was no doubt selling as he got the retail
To buy up
gold couldn’t hold old spike high of 2011 and 10 percent off 2074 ish -1863-1868 - again
gold inches down to test old
Closing high of years gone by at 1818 and failed again for a high speed test of 1800 for a short bounce into comex close
fed says still buying treasuries and agency debt of 120 bln a month - of course this is called not tapering now but they are monster net sellers - their holdings have been falling materially for
Months
rates cranking -2 year us up 25 percent
short term rates still held near target of zero via the two day repo market operation which has eclipsed its Limit this year to be hitting over half a trillion free cash per night - this saw an increase from free to 5 bps - I think they have seen enough of that skyrocketing facility where banks get ever increasing overnight loans at zero
it seems to be the only thing holding short end down
gold trade appeared crowded with lots of calls recently of 200o plus plus plus - massive red candle says it all
support on chart tea leaves says 1793 ish - but with such a move forward by fed you can see rates will Rise sooner rather than never it could be pressured - will probably have a bounce at 1818 ish again
lift in overnight repo rates will
Flow on to leveraged players imo and some
Prices will fall near term- how
Much leverage is in the gold producing space will be exposed near term and unless they ( producers ) are paying out enough to compensate for rate rises share prices will imo be hit near term
Gold Price down but no volume $ traded data displayed so can only Go on price
gold ETFs took a hit during and after market
interesting times - rate rises are coming before we die -
