They has always been an on-going debate between concentration V...

They has always been an on-going debate between concentration V diversification. When either strategy works, their followers will portray that as being the best of the bunch. The same goes between 2 'store of value', Gold v Bitcoin. Wealth made protection v wealth opportunity and protection. A polarised debate I am not going to participate.

I too like our self prefer the stock picking route versus buying the market one, less volatility less return and vice versa.

I follow some guys on Twitter, macro economists but not much discussion on the deflation theme. In fact most are of the view that CPI is not reflective of every day expenses of which energy and food was removed from the equation.

Regarding the devaluing of currency, I've listened to less profiled 'gurus' who are more economic rather than gold centric opinions suggesting the devalue of ccy increase inflation balanced out by the tech innovation that is reducing product prices. The classic pre-internet cost of making a trunk int call V a free one these days through VOIP. Industrial revolution suppressed products produced mass scale and driverless trucks or robotics have further supressed cost of production! These makes sense to me as we see inflation falling since the Seventies.

Theory aside which can be very persuasive on both camps, I like to have "real" measure on conditions. Bond yields which is somewhat manipulated by Feds monthly bond buying could not control the rise in yield from August 2021 low. Current falling yields from a gut feel perspective does signal to me Op Twist type of event by flattening the yield curve so that any market commentary of inflation some say is existing in the Seventies rate falls back to Powell's transitory bias. Other than this I cannot explain why bond traders think outside of this bias unless it is a hide in safety because they deem the equity markets over valued in this current reporting season?

Locally the established major producers where bottom picking bulls who took advantage of pandemic crash were not rewarded for their yearly patience to date. The explorer out performed this solid group. Again I still believe in not only picking the right sector but requires the right timing too.

Long term, some commentary suggests gold is in the handle part of a decade C&H pattern. I am not so sure. In fact I see the current pattern very similar to the 2011-13 playing out. Provided $1680 recent swing low is not broken to the down side, it is still a bullish positioning. Regarding all the key drivers this time around, it has not faced different monetary policy than when QE was introduced back in 2011.

When prices are elevated relatively speaking the more I hear commentary of $2,300 or $3K predictions, the more I get nervous. Equity markets are facing the more cautious to negative commentary recently as all time highs are continually broken, a good sign IMO when cautious money are holding back. I read somewhere that recent volume transactions in US equity markets have tapered off which I take it to mean big money is expecting a reverting of value to some type of mean or a correction. I am of this view.

Regarding growth coming from a low base and recovering strongly by the rate meaning very inflationary is what I think you are implying is the misleading part of the measure. Chinese IO consumption is still strong although I am amazed how sustaining it has been. Too much demand or just the supply from Brazil removed from the equation? I suspect the latter.

I have noticed recently following TLT move up is XLU. This is another key defensive play and when it rallies it does lead the risk markets for its reputation of ominous future prediction. Lets hope defensive plays rubs off on gold too.