The 'sell in may and go away' sentiment is having a life of their own. I did some index analysis on the ASX200 in the past and there is a clear pattern independent of the economic condition from April to June of each year of observation. However to be fair there were some years where it clearly did not behave to the pattern understandable. If human reactions were that predictable we would all be millionaires in no time!
Again, trading tactics is as wide a subject as fundamental trading. The swing trader could be both long and short within this phenomena and the long only traders would probably under perform. However a more astute long term investor would probably take advantage of this weakness to get in cheaper and ride the trend. It is all about perspective and time frame.
Tax loss selling is I suspect like many other investor the reason for this May phenomena as the squaring of loss to wipe the slate clean for the following FY.
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