I appreciate your thoughts. Thanks for taking the time.
From my perspective the Price of Gold is like GDP. It comprises a series of components.
As the Gold Money guy puts it for GDP, if you have two inputs and one is constant, then the other is purely driving things. However at different times for gold, some variables are unchanged, and at other times those same variables are whats driving gold.
I think a combination of FA and TA is required when it comes to gold.
My simplistic theory
POG = A + B + C
A = A dollar value correlated to real interest rates
B = Production costs (which is largely positively correlated to Price of Energy)
C = Safe Haven / Risk of War (Defcon 1,2,3...)
At times, C (Safe Haven) variable is constant, so price being driven by A + B.
With your theory of "forward looking risk of hyperinflation" i think it comes back to A where rapid inflation increases are expected to send real rates negative.
Take 2010-2014, B and C were virtually constant, so A was driving POG. Which aligns with your theory of QE 1 and 2 driving POG up, but then QE 3 failing to actually deliver inflation, let alone hyperinflation (negative real rates) so POG down.
I'm sure the big boys have all sorts of quantitative models to try and achieve good correlation.. however, as they said in the interview..
Even if you have the perfectly correlated model, you still cant predict the Price of Gold, until you can predict the Inputs (i.e. POO, real rates etc).. Rather humble advice.
