I think overall business is going ok at the moment, i'm not trying too hard to counter so called experts on this.
Where i differ to the experts is in the reason why Gold, US Equities and the $US are rising and why i think this new normal along with low rates, low inflation will continue. I've listened to Powell today and it's the first time he's given me confidence that he knows what he's doing so i won't call him a bonehead anymore even though that wording is in my vocab, i liked the way he answered some questions and i like the fact that he acknowledges the US economy is the best it's been in 50 yrs + and low wage incomes are the fastest risers for a change, a very welcome development he says.
What do you think of this theory with my differing view. 1. American Economy still growing well even though GM union action had big impact on last qtr GDP 2. Economies outside US are starting to struggle, EU GDP not flash, China Slowing and who knows what their real GDP is. 3. CB's (not so much Fed) , are exercising their 'tools' more aggressivly than FED because economies in worse shape. 4. Trump trade war starting to flush out Zombie Chinese Banks, i think they've nationalized a couple and have had runs on a few Banks over last 6 mths or so with 2 runs last week, one on Rural Bank. 5. Brexit and other unhappy campers in the EU causing uncertainty in the $EU, Calls for Germany to stop being fiscally 'responsible' or draconian to help buy votes from Italy, Grecce, Spain etc 6. CB's are now buyers of Gold rather than Sellers so this means more demand for Gold and the $US. 7. America is growing the fastest so likely US equities will return best yield and investors can also benefit from stronger $us 8. Trump reckons Globalism is finished at UN speech, he's not on the same page as previous leaders, he likes bi-lateral over dodgy trade pacs, India also thinkiing twice.
