Today's spike in cases is data catch-up.
The graph was actually pointing in this direction before rolling off.
The increase is a geometric progression.
If I use the 579 infections from 22/1/20 as a starting point and today's 60,310 as a point in the progression, the infection rate is 24.76% per day.
Extrapolating this to the end of February, there will be 2.6 million infections.
Now for a bit of reality.
There was a spike in cases on 27/1/20. With 4,581 cases we can use this as a better starting point.
The chart follows this rate quite closely for several days.
The infection rate now drops to a miserly 17.5%
Extrapolating to the end of the month we will have 938,000 cases.
Between 15 and 20% are hospital cases.
The average stay in hospital is 10 days.
The average time till you kick the bucket is 14 days.
How long till the health system collapses?
Once the health system collapses, how accurate will the data be?
Even with only 1 million cases by the end of the month, how much of a mess will China be in?
Someone on the 43rd floor of an office building in Singapore has COVID-19.
That building will contain at least 2,000 people. Will they all be sent for self-imposed quarantine or just the 43rd floor?
I am not a medical person though married to one.
This thing should not be underestimated.
Surely you must have noticed the panic by WHO. SARS and Ebola never generated this much attention.
Of course stockbrokers know better. They should be better at maths.
This may be a reason why they are reluctant to describe just how dangerous this is. Might panic the markets.
