That is a reasonable assumption and a genuine risk. If people don;t get back to work in a reasonable timeframe then shortage will appear. Too much money chasing too few goods - inflation. And as you say if production is stalled for too long - stagflation. The worst of all scenarios.
Personally, I feel COVID will reach its peak soon and then controls will start to make a difference. Back to work by July and stock markets to rocket on the back of stimulus. Gold to wander aimlessly., probably down to 1360 in my opinion.
