Yes, I have devoted very little time to the election because the reactionary impetus from the markets is a coin flip.
The "Feds got your back" is without fail as the pandemic sell-off gathered speed in March this year. I could not have anticipated the scale of the sell-off, the monetary backup nor the recovery from an equity market perspective. This is where that reality diverges from the reality of the economies post sell-off. Imagine sticking to your bearish gun using the economic fundamentals and bet against the recovery? As usual, it's all timing.
Agree that the US economy and most of the developed world isn't mitigating the pandemic destruction from lockdown to zombie companies and etc. Could it be the anticipation of a vaccine to cure the economic destruction? I can see indirectly the 'pent up' demand passively relocating demand to online sales.
QE1-3, share buybacks, Op Twist, QT, Repo pump, reduction of financial capital buffering exposed lender loans, the velocity of more QE are all stating that Feds will do whatever necessary since GFC. Look at that decade measure through the eyes of the riskiest asset class, Equity, over the decade and it is pretty obvious that betting against the Feds LT is suicidal.
In fact, I suspect a Trump 2nd term could possibly be better for the health of the current trade issue with China wrt trade deal/truce if the vaccine is found to be effective. Biden is coming from an ideological perspective so isn't likely to be flexible aka Cold war. All eyes on the Byte Dance-Oracle deal which will demonstrate how flexible Trump really is.
