GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

gold, page-14844

  1. 2,808 Posts.
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    So,
    •Stmulus (QE/low interest rates) = more money supply = prospect of higher inflation = increased POG.

    •Economy improves = removal of stimulus (with inflation still in check) = interest rates expected to rise = POG falls back.

    Then,
    •Interest rates rise in Dec. 2015 = higher US$ = deflation imported into US and erosion of trade competitiveness of US firms = US 2016 inflation and GDP revised downwards(not as strong as previously expected) = extension of stimulus (rates lower for longer) = POG back up.

    Rinse and repeat for 2017 with added complications of a nation divided post election/ongoing geopolitical risks/elevated debt/Euro banks.

    The other factors to take into account is that though we have no hyperinflation in the CPI, there has been inflation and there are bubbles - in bonds/debt, in US equities/in real estate. Their unwinding could get very ugly. I noticed the bond proxy Syd Airport already down around 20% from recent highs.

    There are other complications too. One example would be in the measurement of US unemployment. Are we really at anywhere near full employment? So many are working part-time or casual, so many not actively searching for work and not included in stats. And then you have the currency implications on competitiveness. The US has recovered, most others still languishing. You can get a strong dollar but a Fed unwilling to, or resisting rate hikes. Equities and POG continue to be supported by very low interest rates with not much prospect of them materially rising.
 
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