your absolutists positions do you no credit - on either side1 -...

your absolutists positions do you no credit - on either side

1 - in 2012 the technical target for gold's potential downside was ~us$860. that would have been a pullback to the lt high low uptrend line started in 2002. So nothing wrong with saying gold might go that low at that time. whats stopped that occurring is ultra low interest rates

anyone persisting in calling for gold price sub $us1000 since 2015 and the start of an obvious uptrend is delusional





2. these idiotic discussions of gold vs a house is a game for morons.

compare gold vs land, house vs gold miner is the correct comparison if you have to make it.

one is a core unimproved real asset - the other is an investment improved business asset used to generate higher returns than the core real asset can generate by itself

you should own both. (or all 4)

they act in different ways and offer excellent characteristics.

why you (nearly) all want to make out like you should only own one or the other is beyond me.

however - because we are closer to the end of the economic cycle and property prices are generally much higher than gold prices on relative lt valuation metrics - - gold likely offers some outperformance potential over the next 2-3 years vs capital city residential property.

further - your discussion incorrectly conflates demand with price. there is no evidence that house prices are strongly linked to demand in capital cities.

the clear primary driver of house prices is the price of money (ie debt) - not actual home occupier demand. between 2007-2012 Sydney population growth exceeded 4% yet house prices fell 20%. why - because home loan interest rates rose from 6- 8% because gdp was regularly 4-5% and unemployment fell to below 5%.

so plenty of 'demand' - plenty of income - but house prices fell. because the cost of money rose.

house prices as a result in sydney and melbourne are now massively inflated - not just because of ultra low lending - but because the AUD has fallen from $US1.12 to US0.68c - meaning the market also reflects significant offshore investment which in times of serious stress will depart - meaning there's a much deeper amount of housing supply than is apparent to superficial readers.

3. make no mistake - gold is currently also an 'inflated asset' - it is just not nearly as inflated as capital city property or broad US stock indexes.

Gold is inflated because bonds are super inflated. this pushed down the lt real interest rates - inflating the holding power of gold and so improving its price. if the lt bond market deflates without offsetting inflation (ie real US interest rates rise meaningfully) - US gold will fall fairly hard

4. however - the long term bond market just embarked on a new elliott wave 'higher' - ie lower yields higher 20+yr treasury prices

below is the TLT chart (US20+ yr treasury bond fund)
those flags represent the 1/3/5/b higher high wave count. as you can see the previous wave ended on that 'C' wave at 111.75

we're currently in wave 2 (higher low) of a new primary wave higher having just hit the wave 1 higher high at ~148



i highly recommend putting both doc and skol on ignore rather than continuing your back and forth. you won;t do it ofc - but its nearly all market/investment illiterate