Gold stock sentiment indicator. . Everything expressed below is my opinion only and not to be taken as advice. . I have been expecting these price moves to support the reversal (up) in stocks prices that, for producers, began in late February. I suspect as gold breaks through $1,800 there will be good follow on by juniors. Juniors are doing OK but not what you would expect as the bull snorts and paws at the ground. Should be seeing some higher highs then heading up to and tackling resistance. Many are not even close to those key moves. Producers on the other hand are already getting close with RMS and SLR already tackling major resistance whereas NCM and NST have another 10% or so to go to be in the same position. Juniors with resources are the real laggards and it is this component I am expecting to produce some nice moves. These guys are struggling to break short term resistance and are actually being swatted back down from the weakest resistance level. This is one group I expect some nice moves from during the coming week. Holders of these stocks will be scratching their heads wondering what the hell is going on. Most of them are not even close to hitting major resistance. As far as I am concerned, April is possibly the most important month this year. Sure we have June 28 coming up (BASEL lll) but this is a gold delivery month where physical shortages appear on the brink and I suspect a lot of positioning for BASEL lll will happen this month rather than leave it to the last minute. Far too dangerous as gold is (IMHO) definitely into the bull leg of the cycle. If they do leave it to the last minute (getting physical gold to back short positions) we could be seeing one of the greatest short squeezes ever. . Probably a good time to pop this chart up. The XGD, our gold indice which bottomed on the 5/3/21. Same time as A$POG. This is why I consider A$POG far more important than US$POG for trading Aussie gold stocks. I just wish mainstream media would report gold price in AUD. And more people would chart A$POG. Far more relevant. On the current move I AM NOT expecting a breakout. Resistance begins at 7,563 therefore I am expecting a top between there and 8,025. If I had to pick a number, 7,950. That is around 10% above the current level. Remember the producer numbers above? There will probably be a short, sharp reversal, possibly quite savage. Breakout in May? Keep in mind the 3x ROT regarding stocks price moves versus gold price moves. That give us around US$55 or more importantly, A$70 move in POG. . . One thing is certain, nothing goes up in a straight line. There will almost certainly be a minimum 15% pull-back in producer stocks that will probably take them below the current price. We are only at the beginning of this bull leg of the cycle and if anything like the recent bear leg, it is going to be MAGNIFICENT. We will know more as stocks break out and set up minimum target prices. May have to wait a month or two for these break outs and targets. . Sentiment looking fine and still expecting a top around 55% or so though given above, could go a little higher. Looks like many elements are beginning to line up again in both time and price. Here is the indicator. .
