Another factor which remains important to the US and to Australia is China.
China’s economy has rarely faced such great uncertainty as it does today.
Not only has the world’s second-largest economy been steadily decelerating over the past decade, but it must now grapple with a host of unprecedented internal and external challenges, such as the US trade dispute and alarming levels of off-balance-sheet borrowings by local governments.
China's November 2018 activity data further confirmed the downward trend in their economy.
China’s year-on-year industrial production growth falling to 5.4 per cent from 5.9 per cent in October; fixed asset investment growth eased to 7.7 per cent, after 8 per cent in October; export growth fell sharply to 5.4 per cent from 15.5 per cent in October, largely due to front-loading before next year’s likely US tariff rate increase; and China’s retail sales slowed to 8.1 per cent, from 8.6 per cent in the previous month, with auto sales plunging 10 per cent year-on-year.
China’s policymakers now face a choice between short-term economic stabilisation and long-term economic health amid headwinds. In other words, between government intervention and market liberalisation.
Policy implementation will need time and market lag should see atleast 6-12 months to play out.
2019 will be a slower year attempting to steady global markets. Volatility remains in the meantime.
