If you believe in 'fractual technical analysis' then it seems gold has a ways to fall yet before the bull resumes.
Gold: It's Not Over Yet by David Nichols
Unfortunately it does not look like this correction is over, even though the decline has been quite severe to this point. I have a big cluster of fractal projections down at $675, so that looks like the final destination for this corrective pattern.
The weekly fractal dimension supports this idea, as so far this decline has only carried this indicator down to the mid-40s. Most strong trends run out of energy when the fractal dimension is in the low-to-mid 30s, so there is still plenty of available energy to push gold down to the $675 target.
It's also important to remember that a severe correction like this is a normal and healthy part of a multi-year bull market pattern. The purpose of this correction is to generate a large amount of fear and uncertainty in a short period of time, to create the right sentiment mix for the next rally. Gold can only turn around and head back up when a majority of bulls have abandoned their positions.
According to my projections, this final "breaking point" should be somewhere between $675 - $720.
Anecdotally-speaking, I'm also seeing lots of commentary from the gold community about how this is a great buying opportunity right here. At the actual bottom only a handful of people will be willing to stick their necks out and call it a buying opportunity, as this correction should take gold so low that nobody wants it anymore, as the perceived risk is just too great.
So even though it's been bad to this point, it has to get really bad before it's over. It's possible that gold will even need to go lower than $675, so that is why we always have to wait for our specific buy trigger, even off these big targeted energy levels.
The good news is gold should rebound very energetically off $675, and that should end up being the multi-year low that sets up the next strong leg up for the bull market.
