G'day folks!
Having researched the SPA/BTA contracts of all the current exporting countries around the world, LNG terminals that are either online or under construction in Qatar(Ras Gas, Qatar Gas)... Australia(Gorgon, NWS, Pluto, Australia Pacific, Gladstone, Queensland Curtis, Ichthys, Wheatstone)... Nigeria(Bonny Island)... Algeria... Egypt(Segas, El Behera)... Oman(Qalhat)... Trinidad & Tobago(Atlantic)... Russia(Sakhalin, Yamal)... Abu Dhabi(Adgas)... Brunei... Peru... Yemen - all fully contracted! Indonesia has a current operating capacity of around 22mt with 17.25mt being contracted(25% of output must be kept for domestic use).
Proposed projects PNG, Equitorial Guinea, Coral Mozambique that are awaiting FID in 2017 and will most likely succeed, are also fully contracted.
Malaysia with a capacity of 29.3mt has 8.69 uncontracted... Angola's capacity 0f 5.2 is uncontracted... Sabine Pass(USA) capacity 27mt has 7.25mt uncontracted... Corpus Christi(USA) capacity 13.5mt has 4.84 uncontracted... Cameron(USA) capacity 15mt has 3mt uncontracted... Freeport(USA) capacity 15mt has 1.8 uncontracted. All the information above is based on the contracts i could dig up!
My point is... there is a surplus of roughly 16.89mt in the USA + 8.69mt Malaysia + LNG LTD is fighting for 6mt. That is what we're up against! No contracts are being signed. In 2016, 17mt of new capacity came online which was totally absorbed, majority by China and India for a combined 11.9mt. Global supply capacity went from 248mt in 2015 to 265mt in 2017, an increase of 6.8%. Global annual average demand growth since 20o0 has been 6% - according to Shell report for 2017. So that means about 15.9mt is up for grabs each year and thats on the high side, most analysts are predicting about a 5% increase pa. BTAs will come, in due time!
Looking forward to the conference call with GV tonight. I have unwavering faith he is the man that will deliver our happily ever after!
