Eye on Lithium: BNEF says rising battery costs won’t derail...

Eye on Lithium: BNEF says rising battery costs won’t derail uptake, EV sales to quintuple by 2025

• BNEF says rising battery costs won’t derail EV uptake, with 21m expected to be sold in 2025
• Alkem says price received for lithium carbonate in June quarter expected to be ~14% above prior guidance at US$40,000/t FOB
• Liontown and Tesla have formalised their definitive full-form offtake agreement

All your ASX lithium news for Monday, June 6.

BloombergNEF’s (BNEF) latest Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook flags that passenger electric vehicle (EV) sales are set to grow rapidly in the next few years – from 6.6 million sold in 2021 to 21 million in 2025.

The report also highlighted that the fleet of EVs on the road hits 77 million by 2025 and 229 million by 2030, up from 16 million at the end of 2021.

But EV manufacturers are contemplating a market for battery raw materials that is very tight for the years ahead – and BNEF says the battery supply chain will require significant near-term investment to avoid a supply crunch.

“Yet, the rising cost of batteries will not derail near-term EV adoption,” the report said.

“Some of the factors that are driving high battery raw material costs – war, inflation, trade friction – are also pushing the price of gasoline and diesel to record highs, which in turn is driving more consumer interest in EVs.”

Net zero by 2050 still possible, just

Already EV uptake has displaced 1.5 million barrels of oil demand per day, but rising sales could push this to 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025.

To get on track for a net-zero global fleet by 2050, zero-emission vehicles need to represent 61% of global new passenger vehicle sales by 2030, 93% by 2035, and the last ICE vehicle of any segment needs to be sold by 2038, BNEF says.

Colin McKerracher, head of the advanced transport team at BNEF and lead author of the report, said there are “very positive signs that the market is moving in the right direction, but more action is needed – especially when it comes to heavy trucks.”

“Action also needs to focus on emerging markets, which need financial support to help enable and accelerate the transition to electric mobility of all types,” he said.