Goldman cuts forecast, page-39

Hi Cmon, I think overall wrt O&G are views are pretty close. With SSN though I am more considering specifically that for 2015 and 2016 year SSN is unique to the general view or analysis because of the stage of development. Imo the growth here is free because the market has priced the company on worst case scenario largely on macro and historical issues but has largely ignored the fundamental good story that has occurred since March 2015. That view may be wrong. The OP drop has detracted from an otherwise good story that S/hs could if they choose take some heart from.

Wrt reserves the Ryder Scott report has PDP/PUD reserves of 1,482 mBoe @ npv10 rate $23.11 whereas the new NSA Inc. report suggests 1,938 mBoe @ npv10 rate of $19.98. I think the PUD volume difference may be a Rainbow well waiting for prices to increase and if so some of those costs have already been incurred. If we mix and match these numbers (volume/price) we can come up with a range of potential reserve values which vary to the one number our analysis is based on from the accounts.

Also know from last years impairments what the price effect had on the reserves therefore any improvement in price can be quantified although generally coy's don't write up their assets which in time means the reports will positively highlight value.

On production profile what I mean is the 2nd report has higher reserves for the same wells based on new knowledge from the production. The older curves used for estimating reserves used in the accounts have been challenged by new drilling and completion techniques. In a sense we can see that in the original wells which have defied the traditional curve. What effect this has is purely speculation on my behalf.

I understood the picking winners point, unfortunately there appears to be no winners at the moment in the O&G unless a company has done such a crap job that they have created a shell that can be used for some alternative purpose in the future. Gotta love the stockmarket!!!
Have a great day all
Cheers