A patient shareholder would perhaps look at things differently....

A patient shareholder would perhaps look at things differently. For one, by definition there is no rush to sell in order to realise $3-4.00 per share.The pivotal trial is scheduled to begin: fully funded by Acadia, track record of development and commercialisation and strong support from advocacy groups. In the fullness of time - short term horizon vis-a-vis the never never - milestone payments of up to US$465m will be banked and escalating double digit percentage royalties will flow. Oh, that's just for North America and yes I haven't included the tidy sum from the potential sale of the Rare Pediatric Priority Review Voucher. Also add any upfront and milestone payments for ROW; or value them for zero if your a biotech analyst.

Guaranteed, its de-risked but not yet approved. Once approved, shareholders will begin receiving royalties and the price per share will be more appropriately calculated on a PE basis. What would be a reasonable basis for valuation on peak annual sales > US$500m (company presentation)? Yes, that's US sales alone so double if half glass full person.

Again, while being patient, Neuren is doubling down with the development of potentially a bigger, better blockbuster. Given time and avoiding a panic rush to exit for the impatient, a billion dollar valuation is conservative. Think Acadia valuation or Sarepta, not Viralytics.