goldman sachs: special dividend might be 10c

From the AFR Street Talk pages, Goldman Sachs "has cut its special dividend forecast from 10c a share from 17c a share, due to Sigma's uncertain earnings outlook."

Also, Deutsche Bank has cut their 12-month price target to 44c from 50c, questioning SIP's ability to pass on the cost of reforms to the PBS to chemists.

Analysts are concerned another big pharma could mimic Pfizer's decision to bypass wholesalers.

Goldman Sachs has downgraded its recommendation on Sigma to "hold" from "buy" and lowered its earnings targets by 5% for fiscal 2011, and 20% for fiscal 2012.
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So, we now have a new ball game. I've felt bullish on this stock since the price decline, but it was logically too much to hope that the SP could fall by 20% and that the special dividend could stay the same. If GS is correct, we now have a special dividend of 10c on a SP of about 40c. That's still a return of 25% on SP, BUT the trick is not to be caught out on the potential stampede to the exits as the SP rises on news of the special dividend, and then falls as people profit-take with the possibility of getting left with SIP post-special dividend.

Good luck to all. I'll still be watching the SIP SP for dips... but caution reigns right now, I reckon (my enthusiasm yesterday has dampened a bit- still, 25% return is not so bad!)

Cheers.