"Lifetime value rapidly accumulating as US traction remains strong; retain Buy" - from memory, the last x3 12month targets were very conservative by GS and were reached within months... interesting times ahead. will attach shortly
"We raise our earnings estimates and target price for APT following a review of the latest indicators in the US market. Early signs of success in the US remain strong: APT has experienced a record month of US app downloads, website visitations numbers are growing and it continues to add more retailers. APT will likely need to invest in infrastructure (staff, marketing, customer service, etc.) to support this strong growth and, as a result, our earnings revisions are more muted than our top line upgrades. We introduce a Lifetime Value estimate of APT’s user base: our current estimates imply a per-share value of ~A$23.10 by FY21E. However, should APT achieve a 25% penetration rate of the millennial user cohort in the US and UK, this could generate a value of ~A$35.30. We therefore expect APT’s share price to correlate strongly with user addition numbers. We assume 9.1k customers globally are being added on a daily basis in 2H19 and expect this to rise to 9.9k in FY20E and 10.4k in FY21E. If APT demonstrates it is accumulating customers faster than this, we expect the market to react positively (and vice versa). Our 12-month target price (A$27.10) implies 15% upside. We make no change to our Buy recommendation (on CL)."
