It appears an upgrade from Goldman Sachs is the reason for...

  1. 726 Posts.
    It appears an upgrade from Goldman Sachs is the reason for today's pop in CPL, most US coal stocks are up around 8% to 10% which is in line with CPL today.

    Goldman said it expects demand increases and price stabilization, upgrading its Americas coal coverage view to “attractive” from “neutral.” The industry is expected to benefit from economic growth in China, which will stimulate development and subsequently boost demand for Appalachian metallurgical coal. Last week we reported on a weak production outlook in the coal industry amid emerging strength in coal stocks. Goldman’s Brian Singer said the firm expects a -4% decline in production in 2009. Still, the upgrade sent coal stocks soaring.

    As a whole, the Coal Stocks Index is up by 10.2%. It is currently beating the S&P 500 by 19.1% over the last month.
    As of this writing, the Coal Stocks Index is one of the top-25 performing tickerspy Indexes over the last month, up by 25.7%.
    ...........................................................
    But wait there's more, coal is turning the corner .....
    Some are suggesting that it's the low price of natural gas that's causing companies to abandon coal but I'm not so sure.
    Even with the 49% drop in natural gas between January and April 2012, per kWh gas there's still not much difference in cost when choosing it over coal.

    In Canada analysts expect natural gas prices to more than double over the next 1-2 years which would certainly take away any price incentive fueling the shift from coal to gas. (from $2.1/mmBTU April 22 --> $4.5 by 2014)- Also keep in mind that while analysts almost unanimously agree that the price of natural gas will rise ... the same can't be said of coal.
    Natural gas averaged $4.00/mmBTU in 2011 but ended the year at only $2.75, it then fell further down to $1.40/mmBTU by April 2012. Also to consider, the outlook for coal prices is not as good as it is for natural gas.

    Cheap energy has become the cornerstone to China's growth model. China's long term demand for coal is growing at around 5-8%/yr meaning that demand from that country will double within a decade, in 2010 China accounted for 48% of global thermal/metallurgical coal demand.

    Rock bottom shipping prices is making it easier for coal producers to access Asian markets.
    Today, freight from the US Gulf of Mexico to China is around $50/tonnes, that compares to the bid price for coal of $102-104.

 
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