Goldman's view on earnings

I thought it would be beneficial to know Goldman Sachs' view of fy23 earnings and how it stacks up to share holder expectations. I would appreciate all insights for discussion. I'll start off by saying that I believe this forecast is low as it doesn't take into account any of the revenue generated from cash on hand and implies low spot prices and higher costs throughout the fy, which has not been the case. Nevertheless below is an extract of how GS sees the report going on Tuesday:

According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts are expecting Lynas to deliver a soft result compared to what it reported a year ago.The broker is expecting revenue of $765 million for the 12 months, down 16.8% year on year. This reflects a 25% decline in its average selling price to US$33 per kg.Goldman is also expecting Lynas’ costs to go in the wrong direction in FY 2023. It is forecasting cash costs of A$25 per kg, up 25% year on year.The sum of the above means an underlying EBITDA margin of 47%, down from 65% a year earlier. As you would expect, if this is accurate, it is going to crunch Lynas’ earnings.Goldman expects the company’s underlying EBITDA to fall 40% to $362 million and its underlying profits to drop 48.2% to $280 million.No dividend is expected to be paid for FY 2023.

glta