i have research this stock for months & was buying options under 1 cent
$700/t is not a good price
on 100,000 tonnes output, on a PE ratio of 10, GPH would be worth 27 cents in the long term (i.e. in about 4 years time, once they start producing, if they are lucky)
$700/t would make AUS$35M pa in EBITDA or $18M NPAT
do the math
shares have to be issued for CAPEX, say 35% equity funding
for investors to earn 160% profit for funding the CAPEX, the raising would have to be at 10 cents
if the raising was at 20 cents, their return would be 73%
not worth it
if i plug $1000/t in the spreadsheet, the raising price can be 25 cents and the return to investors 211%
EBITDA becomes $63M and profit $38M
i have had my spreadsheets prepared for months, waiting for today
$700/t potash simply won't cut it
see my 'ugly duckling' thread in AMN (although the PE ratio there is only 9)
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