Our expert Ben Coley makes Brandt Snedeker his headline selection for this week's US Open at Chambers Bay.
An unflappable Brandt Snedeker looks the ideal player for this week's test
BRONZE: 1pt e.w. Brandt Snedeker at 50/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) – has the right attitude for a unique test and also boasts an excellent US Open record BRONZE: 2pts e.w. Rickie Fowler at 22/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) – continued outstanding major run in the Masters and has since won an important event BRONZE: 2pts win Dustin Johnson at 22/1 (General) – course could favour the bombers and should that be the case DJ might finally land his first major BRONZE: 1pt e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 40/1 (BoyleSports 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) – few bring better recent form to the table and his major record is already superb
If the USGA’s mission was to get people talking about the 115th US Open, it has already been accomplished. What follows over the course of the next week is in that sense irrelevant.
Seldom before has a major rivalled the Masters – whose story is able to evolve over eight months rather than the eight weeks which separate the season’s first major from its second – for pre-tee-off hype, all of which stems from the decision to hand Chambers Bay its first crack at hosting a major championship. It was a decision made within a year of the course’s grand opening in 2007.
Without doubt, there’s a degree of trepidation involved on all sides. Even the suits at the USGA, who you sense revel in the spotlight, must be anxious knowing that their actions from now until Sunday night will shape how this championship is remembered. For executive director Mike Davis, it will define his tenure.
All of this sounds dramatic and that’s firmly the intention, for a dramatic test lies in store. This course, whose first and 18th holes will switch from par-fours to par-fives on the whim of a collection of businessmen, looks freakish even in a country whose golf courses vary perhaps more than any other on the planet.
It is long – there was briefly talk of 8,000 yards, which is truly absurd and has gladly been put to bed – and undulating, the latter best summed up by the par-three ninth hole which might one day play uphill, another downhill to the tune of some 100 feet. Those who’ve played Chambers Bay say that it is brutally difficult and could be borderline impossible should the powers that be let the greens run too fast or place the pins where they simply can’t be accessed.
Peter Uihlein, who won the US Amateur Championship here in 2010, recalls aiming away from flags and even intentionally missing greens in order to give himself the best chance to salvage par. That week, big-hitting Uihlein found a magic touch around the greens and many will see that as the blueprint for success this week.
What’s clear is that this is a unique US Open and therefore extremely hard to predict. History dictates that the winner will look somewhat obvious on reflection and I would still expect that to prove correct, but the allowance for random as a means to separate the field may never have been so great and bets are placed in the knowledge that they could bomb out quickly.
Trawl through the archives and read previews other than this one to find comments from every player to have set foot on the property, but the one which caught my eye came from Charl Schwartzel, who said: “I think it’s a course that involves a hell of a lot of luck.”
Gladly, I’m feeling lucky and will begin my attempt to crack this puzzle by siding with Brandt Snedeker as the headline selection.
Snedeker is the same age as recent breakthrough major champions Adam Scott and Justin Rose and while he wouldn’t perhaps have carried the expectations of those two into his thirties, as a multiple PGA Tour winner he has nothing more to prove bar landing one of the four most coveted titles.
He’s come close, of course, twice spurning opportunities at Augusta while also leading the field a merry dance before coming unstuck in the 2012 Open Championship. The latter effort, which ended in a share of third, demonstrates his versatility and there’s clearly a links feel to Chambers Bay, one which will favour those who are imaginative around the greens.
Snedeker’s US Open record also speaks of his ability to approach any challenge with the right attitude, and it is attitude which could really help separate the field this week. The man from Tennessee has six top-25 finishes from his last seven appearances in his national championship, ranging from the brutally tough Oakmont to the rain-soaked Congressional, the old-fashioned straight-and-narrow test of Merion and the firm-and-fast Pinehurst a year ago.
Unquestionably one of the game’s most upbeat characters, one grateful for the career he has, Snedeker just doesn’t strike me as the type of player to down tools when a good shot finds a bad location, or when these bumpy greens push a pure putt away from its target.
Speaking of the greens, which are separated from the fairways by a circle of white dots hard to see from afar, I do wonder whether we should be looking at players who thrive on poa annua as a guide.
For those who dip into golf only occasionally, poa annua greens – found primarily on the west coast – tend to be bumpy and some players struggle to adapt to them, while others thrive. We are not on poa annua this week – all the grass at Chambers Bay is fescue, again unique in this part of the world – but it certainly isn’t a bad thing that Snedeker is a confirmed poa annua specialist, as he’s shown with west-coast wins at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach.
I like Snedeker because he is exceptional around the greens, plays firm and fast golf courses well and has a strong US Open record. He also arrives in form courtesy of two top-six finishes in his last two starts, is a winner this year and ranks among the best players in the sport without a major to their name. But chief among all the factors in his favour is attitude – Snedeker’s is among the best in the game.
Of the market leaders, I can’t knock Rory McIlroy or Jordan Spieth but that need for luck means surely it’s too great a risk to take a single-figure price.
I was on Spieth at around 8/1 in the Memorial last time, an event he perhaps should’ve won, but in a stronger field and switching from some of the best greens on Tour to some which may prove to be among the worst, there’s no temptation to back him. I’m sure you’ll read that his caddie has more knowledge of Chambers Bay than any other but that will only take you so far and Spieth really struggled here in the US Amateur, although that too is only of minor relevance.
McIlroy has won at Valhalla and Kiawah Island, two long courses which are alike in certain ways to Chambers Bay, while he’s also gone close at Whistling Straits which again shares its similarities. With little wind in the forecast there’s plenty in his favour and he’s better value than Spieth, but one or two bad bounces can cost you five or six shots and I want to know that McIlroy’s technical superiority alone can take him to the title. I’m not sure it can here.
Phil Mickelson heads to Washington in form as he bids to finally win the major he so desperately wants, one which would see him beat Rory to a career grand slam, and he’s been extremely positive in his appraisal of Chambers Bay. With more creativity than most and seemingly the right attitude, Mickelson has an obvious chance but odds short of 20/1 firmly reflect this and it is of course possible to want something too much.
I prefer the claims of Rickie Fowler and at 22/1 am prepared to add him to my staking plan.
Any notion that Fowler was either an underachiever or in some way overrated – two terms thrown around with reckless abandon in all sports – was surely put to bed with that stunning finish in THE PLAYERS Championship, where for the best part of two hours he played golf of a standard you may not see again this decade, let alone this season.
It was a performance which rewarded Fowler for a transition he’s worked hard to complete, one which first began to take shape when he went to Butch Harmon for advice on his swing. Since that point, Fowler’s game has elevated to a new level and his consistency in the biggest events is outstanding. Even when struggling somewhat in the spring, he added 12th place at Augusta to last year’s string of top-five major finishes.
I believe that we can essentially ignore his missed cut in the Memorial last time, a performance which came on the back of a testing four days in Ireland, and focus instead on the fact that Fowler should feel as prepared as anyone for the challenge ahead.
Crucially, Fowler is an old-fashioned shot-maker who loves to work the ball. With fairways as wide as 100 yards in places I suspect that the challenge will intensify after the tee-shot and this suits him down to the ground. His performances in links conditions speak of someone who thrives in the face of adversity and those top-fives from 2014 came across a variety of courses.
I felt for much of last season that there was no better putter in the world and while Spieth now holds that honour, of late Fowler has again looked confident on the greens. He remains prominent in three-putt avoidance and the fact that his scrambling remains very strong despite early-season troubles from inside 20 feet shows that he’s chipping well, while his bunker play is also good.
Like Snedeker, Fowler is among the most popular players on the PGA Tour and this stems from what appears a humble personality. Again I believe that there will be no moaning about bad breaks from the 26-year-old with all the tools to win this tournament, while the fact that he grew up on poa annua greens is another little bonus.
I can see why some would consider the price on the short side but there have always been players who are at their best in majors and Fowler is quickly looking like one of them.
I am keen to get at least one monster hitter in the staking plan and make no apologies for keeping faith in Dustin Johnson, who I believe will win a major soon.
There’s little need to tread old ground with Johnson, whose off-course struggles have been well-documented, but the fact that he’s returned from his six-month absence and already won another World Golf Championship highlights his brilliance.
That his victory came at Doral in the most big-hitter-friendly event of the season confirms that if Chambers Bay really does favour the bombers, Johnson can take advantage and his form overall has been very good. There was once a notion that DJ struggles for consistency but that really isn’t the case as a run of 4-2-MC-1-6-6 in the spring confirms.
Regular PGA Tour followers will know that Johnson withdrew citing illness after a difficult nine holes at Southwind last week but that’s not much of a concern to me. Johnson has withdrawn several times before when things haven’t been going well, indeed his first ever win as a professional came after a run of WD-WD-MC-40.
Instead I’d rather focus on some key statistical improvements, crucially around the greens. Johnson is inside the top-40 on the PGA Tour for bogey avoidance and scrambling, the areas which have typically held him back, while he’s an encouraging 15th in approach putt proximity. It’s these aspects of the game he’s had to focus on as well as finding off-course happiness, which as a father he now seems to have done.
As with all selections there’s an element of guesswork involved here but with Johnson having gone close at Whistling Straits and in the 2011 Open Championship, he definitely has an adaptable game capable of tackling any course. That Chambers Bay could suit the big hitters is enough for me and again, he has coped with bumpy greens in the past.
Finally, although I am tempted to find space for Zach Johnson despite his obvious lack of power, Hideki Matsuyama looks an altogether more solid candidate.
The Japanese superstar is enjoying a phenomenally consistent season, with eight top-25 finishes leading up to the US Open and a remarkable five top-five payouts in 12 starts in 2015.
Among this field, there’s nobody ranked higher in bogey avoidance and that’s thanks to an improving short-game, which sees him rank seventh in scrambling despite occasional struggles with the putter.
From tee-to-green, Matsuyama is already among the world’s best and despite being a 23-year-old forced to play the vast majority of his golf in a country whose language he’s still working hard to grasp, he’s clearly comfortable at the top level. Already in eight majors as a professional he has seven top-40 finishes including an excellent fifth place in the Masters earlier this year.
Matsuyama was sixth despite a cruel slow play penalty in the Open won by Mickelson at Muirfield and 10th before that in Justin Rose’s US Open at Merion, performances which further underline how versatile he is, while his sole PGA Tour triumph to date came at the tough, major-like test of Muirfield Village in Ohio.
For what it’s worth, Matsuyama was out at Chambers Bay in the spring so he’s clearly been gearing up for this event for a while and there’s little doubt he’ll have his share of chances to win a major over the coming years. With such a strong bank of form this year he looks an obvious contender. Posted at 1200 BST on 15/06/15.
