My calculation of 67-68 pearls needed a year was actually based on maximum operational life of 6 years, which is the average value between 5 to 7 years, so it was in fact based of up to date information. This is why I assume replacement is needed after 4 years or in other words, the 5th year. If maximum operational life of 5 years is assumed then replacement would be needed after 3 years or in other words the 4th year. As a result then the numbers needed would be significantly higher and that number is around 100 a year. You need to remember that SAS expects to maintain 200 or more satellites at any given time with only 5% percent redundancies. From the latest presentation it was also stated from one of the slides that they need at least 180 to service any voice call functionality. It would be imperative then to maintain commercial viability with minimal downtime by replacing the pearls before they expire while leaving enough room for margin of error. This is because I expect that replacing any pearls could take quite a significant amount of time and I am sure you would agree that no engineer would wait and push devices into breaking points before replacing them, that would be silly. Instead they would replace them before they break to ensure smooth commercial operation. Mathematically then, I believe that those numbers that I came up is non-negotiable. After the full 200 is up there I expect that cost that I calculated to be recurring forever so without immediate profit to cover the cost then even more CR would be needed. Also not taking into account that things may not go well on the first batch and there may be delays and cost blowouts, etc...or the whole design might be horse dung from the very beginning...a lot of risks.
Assuming that: SAS do their capital raise 4 times, each with a 25 percent discount, within 4 years starting in 2019 for 76 million a year, also assuming that the SP neither drop nor rise in the period between each CR then...by my calculation... we are looking at roughly 25.78 billion shares at $0.0042 or 0.42 cents a share at market cap 110 million. At that level...to get to Hunterr 50 cents then the SP has to rise by 119 times ASSUMING NO MORE CR...giving a market cap of 13.09 billion.....which is absolutely ludicrous...in comparison inmarsat has 1.9 billion market cap and irridium 2.4 billion...
I believe it would be much better if SAS does their CR all at once instead of in smaller increments because I believe it would allow the SP to appreciate in between. On the other hand, if the CR is done in smaller increments, not only would I believe that things would be more chaotic in terms of scheduling but also who would want to participate in the CR knowing that very soon another one would come? Especially in current climate of investing. You know, like I have mentioned, that 25.79 billion shares figure that I calculated is based on static SP after each successive CRs, if the SP goes down significantly, beyond the discounts, after each CR then the number of dilution would be incomparably greater.
It is also important to realize that revenue figures, claimed or otherwise, means absolutely nothing and could be misleading if not accompanied by profit. As to how accurate that revenue claimed by SAS is...well you have to rely on faith and that alone.
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