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2,409 Posts.

364

11/12/18

13:48

Post #: 36819430
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Originally posted by Senseightynine: ↑

Originally posted by aniesbaswedan
@happydayz,

"The actual life of the satellites is 8 to 10 years..."

Nope, 5 to 7 years and that is from SAS.

@hcp123

Mathematic is not an opinion. You are either wrong or you are right, you can't make things up.

[Assuming operational max limit is 6 years, which is an average between 5-7 years. Thus reasonable assumption is that each batch would have to replaced on their 5th year]

Based on the above assumption then, nope, you are wrong. You are assuming the mathematic is as simple as 200 divide by 5 and that is wrong because you are not taking into account operational life limit in that case.

I will explain to you this way:

Lets take my calculation of 68 pearls per year:

[first year 68], [second year 136], [third year 204], [fourth year 272], at fifth year first batch of 68 needs to be replaced so they come down and new pearls launched to replace them [272-68=204; then replaced by new batch of 68; So 204+68=272]. The result is a stable number fluctuating between at least 200 and 274 from fifth year onward taking into account 5% redundancy in the system. From then on it is rinse and repeat for the 6th year and beyond.

Lets compare that with 40 pearls per year, the figure that you came up with:

[first year 40], [second year 80], [third year 120], [fourth year 160], at fifth year first batch of 40 needs to be replaced so they come down and new pearls launched to replace them [160-40=120; then replaced by new batch of 40; So 120+40=160]. The result is a fluctuating number between 120 and 160 from fifth year onward and will never reach 200 needed.From then on it is rinse and repeat for the 6th year and beyond. So the number of 200 will never be reached with max of 160 instead of 200. Based on SAS presentation they need at least 180 for voice call... so no voice call then...patchy messaging...

For the sake of an argument lets say SAS is pushing the pearls too close for comfort to its maximum operational limit of 6 years by replacing on 6th year....., which I think would be silly, and still launch at the rate of 40 pearls per year:

[first year 40], [second year 80], [third year 120], [fourth year 160], [fifth year 200], at sixth year first batch of 40 needs to be replaced so they come down and new pearls launched to replace them [200-40=160; then replaced by new batch of 40; So 160+40=200]. The result is fluctuation between 160 and 200 at the sixth year, which again would be unacceptable. If you still insist to do it that way then you need at least 50 a year, which would then mean that SAS would need at least 52-65 million in 2019 assuming each pearl cost 750k to 1 million to build and launched and assuming no additional cost needed nor increase in operational cost.

All based on my assumption, my personal understanding and calculation.

Expand

I don't think that the satellites that are past their operational life will be "coming down". Rather they will stay up there as a backup once new satellites are launched, or will just become space junk once replacement satellites are up.

This makes more sense than them bringing them down to earth
all imo

Nope this is wrong. A simple thing called gravity will force them down. They will not have fuel to keep them up.

SAS Price at posting: 5.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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