LYC 3.39% $7.41 lynas rare earths limited

gone a bit quiet, page-14

  1. 4,448 Posts.
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    strike, yes, I am aware they are *drum roll* fully funded. My point to Obtoberfest was that the argument the company was at its cash backing was a falsity; it matters not.

    I used reverse logic on that argument to argue you should sell now, if the logic holds, because the company is spending money to make a mine and a processing plant, and then it will make money.

    In essence, every time some nincumpoop argues "in ground value" or "cash backing" at me on a resource stock, i have a deep testicle-rattling belly laugh and a tear of mirth slips out the corner of my eye at the ironic joy of it all.

    No one buys mineral compnies for their in ground value - mostly this is captured in unmineable inferred resources and other shite.

    No one buys a miner who has 100% cash backing and who is building a mine based on a cash backing argument. Who'd want it? To get the cash liquidated and into your own bank account you'd have to jump through incredible hoops and you'd be lucky to retrieve more money than you'd put in. No, much better to await the mine's completion.

    But still, somehow, people still trade like this.

    For example, an argument. You have a miner with $4Bn in cash but crap assets, valued at $4bn market cap. No in-ground value. What are you buying their shares for? The off chance they'll hand it back to you, IGO/CFE/CDU style? Odds are you'll see equity prices decrease and, surprise surprise, you'll have a wad of cash and shares worth diddly squat and a mining company which is holding its hand out and looking for a decent mining project. Great deal. You spent 100c in the dollar, maybe got 50c back in cash, then you watched your other 50c shrink to 5c. Ala CFE. Maybe a small cadre of canny traders bought low, got their 50c disbursement (minus tax) sold on a high, and are out for maybe a 10% profit. 99% of the rest are rooted.

    So yeah. Big whoops about LYC's cash. And big whoops that these guys have experience with REE's - there's a hell of a lot more people with experience in gold and yet you see very many gold mines croaking under technical and financial duress (TAM, MON, GLN, VRE, CRK, etc etc and that's just the past 2 years). And gold is simple.

    So, I ask you again - has everyone captured the true technical risk of this plant in Malaysia? Its my contention that LYC should be trading at a steep discount to cash backing up until they make their first purified REE.
 
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