He makes some got points, but is fundamentally wrong in his analysis.
The sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 & 2 pipelines does not kill any possibility of a negotiation between Europe and Russia. Just the opposite, it very strongly incentivises Europe to seek a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine to protect the gas pipelines across Ukraine's territory. Contrary to this guy's claim that Ukraine cut gas supply to Europe, they have done their best to maintain supply, knowing that stopping the gas would hurt their friends much more than their enemy (supply was reduced for just a few days in May, due to Russian forces "interfering" with the eastern pipeline). His conclusion that the US is behind the attacks is therefore quite erroneous.
For this reason too, we can discount Ukraine as the perpetrator. The only player with anything to gain from these attacks is Russia.
Russian cooperation will also be needed to repair the Nord Stream pipelines. Remember that Germany suspended the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in retaliation against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, just as the project was nearing completion. No gas has yet been supplied through Nord Stream 2. Russia recently shut off flow to Nord Stream 1 for planned maintenance, and then extended the shutdown to send the message that they are prepared to shut off the gas. The sabotage of both pipelines is Putin's response to Europe's continued support of Ukraine. Russia now also gains leverage to link their cooperation in the repair of Nord Stream 1, with Germany's return to the Nord Stream 2 project.
What Putin wants is for NATO allies to allow him to annex the territory he has captured from Ukraine. The best case scenario being a negotiated treaty whereby Ukraine cedes it's territory. Hopefully he would allow Ukraine to subsequently join NATO and the EU, but the negotiations around these points would be very tough. Putin would want a lot in return. Ukraine would need to drop all claims of compensation against Russia, and the west would have to end all sanctions. This then clears the way for re-normalising of relations, permitting the repair of the pipelines.
That at least is my reading of Putin's strategy.
If a resolution is not found, the ramifications extend far beyond Germany and Europe. It could seal the fate of the world economy. We are possibly talking global economic meltdown as the EU economy crashes. All nations now have a big stake in what happens in Ukraine.
A go-between will likely be required to initiate negotiations. I don't think it could be a NATO country (nor Finland or Sweden who are in the process of joining). A member of OPEC - one of the gulf states - might be asked to act as peacemaker.
Whether or not any of this comes to pass is anybody's guess, but we should soon know. The clock is ticking as the northern winter approaches.
Germany is likely to be key in any such move. One thing to perhaps watch out for, is if the Germans act to re-start their nuclear power plants. This could be a sign that they are digging in their heals, although, given the urgency of the situation, they may now have no choice either way.
Putin is an incredibly clever operator. He knows that it is not necessary for him to claim responsibility for the sabotage. The new reality on the ground is not changed by it, and the information void is consequently filled with conspiracy theories that further help his cause.
