good day today roc, page-8

UBS Investment Research

ROC Oil Company Limited

Dec Qtr: Wei gains CNOOC approval

􀂄 Sales revenue of US$75.3m boosted by overlift
Dec 2010 qtr production was 11% above our expectations; however sales were
materially higher than anticipated due to the partial make-up of a net underlift
position. Roc?s average daily production rate for 2010 was 8,483 boepd, within
prior company guidance of 8,000 to 9,000 boepd. CNOOC has now approved the
Development Plan for the Beibu Gulf Wei development. FID of the project is
expected by the end of February 2011 and first oil by end of 2012.

􀂄 Impact: 2010 EPS forecast increased 7.1%; ?11 and ?12 EPS reduced
The better than expected sales revenue for the Dec qtr has increased our 2010 EPS
forecast by 7.1%. Our 2011 and 2012 EPS forecasts have reduced 4.5% and 7.4%
respectively due to minor model adjustments.

􀂄 Action: Neutral rating maintained
While believe the CNOOC Wei Beibu Gulf development approval is positive for
Roc, we have maintained our Neutral rating. In our view the appointment of a
permanent CEO (to be announced this month) should provide more clarity on the
future strategic direction of the company.

􀂄 Valuation: $0.45 (prior $0.49) DCF at 10%
Our NAV estimate is a DCF (10% nominal discount rate) of forecast cash flows
over the 2P reserve life of producing assets and all committed and highly probable
projects. Our price target is equal to our valuation.