PV1 5.00% 2.1¢ provaris energy ltd

good entry point, page-22

  1. 11,400 Posts.
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    Hotdoggidy..

    Last week you spent 2100 on 300k TTEO options.

    I'll run you through the way I think about it, despite being hated on by some for my caution:

    1. TA currently looks like bouncing off resistance (IMO) which unless an FA catalyst occurs (successful drill etc)

    In this case, it took 4 months to recover and hit a low of 1.2c. meaning xmas time price would be 1.2-1.8, lets say 1.8c. meaning you now have to either exercise, for an additional price of 1.5c x 300k = 4500$ making your overall average price 2.2c (the current 12month high, and a loss of $1200 which then you could recoup if price rises again or not exercise and lose the 2100$...

    2. FA goes badly, could see new lows, in which case it would eb cheaper to just buy the heads at some rediculously low price rather than exercise, lose 2100.

    3. FA goes as current market is expecting, with some minor news but no company makers, no cap raisings either,

    you may break even if the timing is right, or refer to Point 1.

    4. FA goes ballistic -> you make a motsa

    5. FA goes better than expected and TTE decides to CAP raise to take advantage of the higher prices (less dilution) see point 3.

    so basically in my view, you have a 1 in 5 shot, coupled with even if drills go well, you still may be deep in it if the oil price drops changing the economics.

    Just my point of view obviously, DYOR.

    5 months to make or break a company is a short time.

 
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