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iminvestor101

2,085 Posts.

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25/05/22

14:27

Post #: 61614361
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Originally posted by iminvestor101 ↑

by historical measures, oil is cheap right now.

interest rates on 10 year yields have peaked imo.

the interest rate im currently getting is a one off 4.91%p.a. assuming the instrument i hold for my fixed income remains at the current price by end of year and then 2.25% running after that. i have no mortgage or rent costs.

the market has priced in too many rate hikes and thats why yields are falling and bonds are rising. they wont hit anywhere near the number hikes currently being predicted. as such interest rates should fall and a more healthy rate should be established.

the point is that yields imo have peaked. add in a china slow down and that should ease some inflationary pressures, at least in australia, being that over 50% of australian inflation is imported and i would guess the vast majority comes from china. so peaking bond rates and peaking oil prices could be in given that the current situation is pretty horrid as we speak. how much into the future is the current market priced? i think further than the recessionary possibility and too far into the future, hence perhaps last nights reversal in sp500 and also falling rates. the reserve banks can wipe off employment right now and focus on inflation by doing what they are doing. the market will take care of the rest as expectations adjust to the actual rate of hikes from fed. in other words, the fed underestimated inflation and until recently investors started overshooting inflation expectations.

the fed will likely allow for more inflation on opposed to a deceleration of the economy, given that they have few tools left to increase employment and inflation if they had to. if 2020 teaches us anything is that the central banks will do whatever it takes to support the labour market and thus the broader economy.

those are my musings anyways. i think things should take more time to see the actual deterioration that equity markets might be pricing in as after all, the stock markets are not the economy. the economy imo lags the stock market and i dont see things getting materially worse than they are right now. could mean upward surprises? too many variables to know exactly what is going on, hence why im taking a punt here.

my next order is in at .83 so we shall see. i dont have much allocated for zip, only two buys of 12.5k each.

strictly a punt.

gltah and dyor

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fk it i moved my order to .835.

should be interesting to see what unfolds by friday.

gltah and dyor

ZIP Price at posting: 83.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $2.79		Change -0.010(0.36%)		Mkt cap ! $3.642B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$2.80	$2.81	$2.74	$25.49M	9.190M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	11942	$2.78

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$2.79	30971	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	2857	2.780
8	74759	2.770
6	75873	2.760
38	487615	2.750
17	328900	2.740

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.790	30971	2
2.800	211817	15
2.810	445497	7
2.820	251492	13
2.830	29800	6

Last trade - 16.10pm 27/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

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Good for a punt?, page-11

Estrella first foreign entity to win tenements in Timor-Leste under new laws ahead of 2025 tenders

ACCC seeks Olam divestments before its acquisition of Namoi Cotton can go ahead

HotCopper users muse on De Grey's denial of Agnico Eagle takeover bid – but who are Agnico?

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The market's shrugged at China's stimulus measures all year. Why is this one different?

Zeta Resources seeks to resolve the Panoramic takeover story

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4DMedical lands Philips US reseller deal with eye to Veterans Affairs' market post-lung damage

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

5.6g/t gold intercept at Serbia's Rogozna supports Strickland's hopes for high-grade core

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Good for a punt?, page-11

Top Stories

Estrella first foreign entity to win tenements in Timor-Leste under new laws ahead of 2025 tenders

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Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

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Zeta Resources seeks to resolve the Panoramic takeover story

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4DMedical lands Philips US reseller deal with eye to Veterans Affairs' market post-lung damage

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5.6g/t gold intercept at Serbia's Rogozna supports Strickland's hopes for high-grade core

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News