Although I love the potential story, I recently sold out of AJX. I am still taking an active interest in the stock and how things transpire for it. While keeping an eye on these threads I find the level of positive vitriol, and criticism of anyone who dare have an alternative view, a little like the thought police! I'm dismayed by this - it is a public forum where views are to be expressed and shared to enable people to make investment decisions.
So I want to share my reasons for selling for those who seek others views, good, bad or indifferent. That is what these boards are for and I will simply stick to facts, not emotive language.
Latest 4C
- Q2 cash revenue was less than Q1. Not the end of the world but not the trend you want to see.
- the company chose not to provide formal commentary about the reasons for this (or a commentary about revenue as before) in the 4C. Again not necessarily the end of the world.
- for the first time though the company included a Disclaimer in this 4C. This said 2 important things which concerned me:
1. the forward looking statement "is not a guarantee of future performance" and "actual outcomes.... may differ
materially".
2. the company claims not to have a duty to update the market (other than required by law) on its forecast if/when circumstances change in the future. I interpret that to mean that if it looks like they won't reach their forecast, they don't necessarily need to say so (other than required by law).
Generally speaking
- I have found their official releases ambiguous and confusing. For example, this from a previous 4C..
During the quarter and leading up to the Appendix 4C, the Company received a combined $1,794,000 consisting of cash and commitments from commercial customers and grantors . Is it 3 months or 4 months? How does this revenue relate to the cash reported in the 4C? etc.. I sought clarification of this from the company without success.
- there have been debates here about even the most basic financial terms in their releases like the difference between earnings and revenue - all because their announcements are consistently unclear.
- ambiguousness of company releases seems to be a widely held view, according to the 22 thumbs this post got!
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/unwarranted-panic.2826345
Recent postings.
- the recent posting on HC has been bizarre to say the least! Some people claiming that the company is muting its information flow to allow institutions to get stock. At one point I thought this might actually be a possibility, yet the broker data from last week (
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/broker-data.2738265) shows that after the 4C release when the stock fell and was trading below about 60c, there was a net transfer of share from Instos/Brokers to Retailers/Onliners. Not a good trend.
- there was an incredibly bizarre post from a poster on 1/8 saying he was in contact with the company and needed to go 'over the wall' and wasn't allowed to trade because of privileged information. Yet the next day it was revealed that the MD bought 100,000 shares on market on 1/8. Poster was asked as to how this could be - no response. For me that calls the credibility of this poster into serious question. He continues to post articles about how close he is to the company, spends time with them, things are going well, etc...but I simply cant put any faith in that given the posting history. It just reads like propaganda.
So these are just some of the facts that has prompted me to take a loss and move on - for what its worth. Good luck to the company and those that remain. I'll watch with interest at how things evolve from here
