re: good magnolia farmout - acturtle tpbrad,basically I am not a...

re: good magnolia farmout - acturtle tpbrad,

basically I am not a fundamental trader of oilspecs. I trade 'market behaviour' rather the assets of a company. That probably doesnt make sense, but as long as the leverage exists in the drill outcome I will be snooping around in the market.

How do you value an asset that nobody knows if it exists? One day there is a prospect and the next there is either zilch or a bucket load of oil or gas worth millions.

I dont sit back and work out detailed company valuations. Others here do it quite nicely Ian W, Mangrove, etc.

However I can tell you that the stockanalysis newsletter this week put a "discovery" value for Magnolia at 95 cents per share for NWE.

This newsletter puts together a heap of data on company valuations for oilspecs and is good value for anyone wanting to learn more about oilspecs. Google to find it.

Keep in mind any well called a wildcat (as is Magnolia) has a success rate no better than 1 in 3 and keep in check any hotcopper optimistic chat and pre drill hype because after quite a few years of trading these suckers I still think noone can pick the discoveries in advance.

The good thing about NWE it has other drilling action coming up in the US and cash in the bank. One very important rule with oilspecs is to buy early, not just as the drilling is starting.

acturtle