good monday?, page-3

Wow - that was certainly a nice move in copper (PBLI - good morning Nine Lives). I sometimes wonder why I spend so many hours updating my charts when all I really need is a copper chart!

But that move in the SPX was just about perfect for the bulls. It has got that market back up off this bottom area and out of danger for now although probably a little overdone short term. At least now it will give us a chance to decide whether my preference for a sustained move up is on the way or whether I should be entertaining the most pessimistic Elliott analysis which calls for a massive Third Wave down. As I have mentioned before, my thinking is that the XJO could go back up to the UPPER boundary of the expanding triangle (over 5000). On Friday I felt that sentiment and the news was just so overwhelmingly bearish that the market had probably discounted anything that was on everyone's mind so that to go lower, we would need some news compeltely from left field to drive prices lower. As it turns out, the news, as bad as it was on Friday, was no worse than everyone had already been thinking - and had already been discounted.

There was a lot of attention last week on the probability of a little head and shoudlers top here. I think everyone should have a look at what has happened since May. If the market is going to go up, then this whole trading area could be a nice base pattern. Yummy. But I am not a day trader - looking more for the swings.

But just to make sure we all keep our feet firmly on the ground, we need to have a look at the long term chart of BHP from time to time. Really needs to get is act together. I do know though that over the very long term it has often looked very threatening only to pull out of it. Have a look at its trading between 1999 and 2003.