I'm genuinely interested in what people have worked out. Do you...

I'm genuinely interested in what people have worked out. Do you mind if I give you some parameters so you can do your own analysis. Before I do, be warned that there is a lot of variables, including the time lines of further development/expansion. For example, in early 2019 PLS completed a scoping study on a stage 3, 1.2 mill tonne spod operation. However, that didn't see much light of day, due to US/China trade war, changes to China's EV subsidies, putting a big dent in EV demand, then came along the Shanghai Shivers of 2020.

So lets reset from today, and make a few assumptions, noting all number quoted are in US$;

• Spod (SC6%) Pricing - Small supply deficit of 6kt this year, deficit growing through 2022, then structural deficit in 2023. So we have at least a few years of rising lithium prices. Like them or not, Roskill have forecast average spod price of $730 from 2020 through 2032. So let's stay with that $730 price, which should be sufficient to encourage investment in new supply/expansion.

• Battery ready Carbonate & Hydroxide Pricing - Pretty much in line with Roskill's forecast averages - $12,000 and $14,000pt respectively

• PLS Expand to stage 3 - Therefore 1.2 mill tonnes of spod by 2026. Thus increase on current capacity of 650kt, incrementally inline with market demand. Conservative average AISC of $320pt.

• PLS Downstream - Producing carbonate or hydroxide chems, lets say hydroxide only. Assume 50kt per year, attributed to PLS's, whether via JV's of otherwise. Assume 7 tonnes of spod to 1 tonne of hydroxide at above AISC. Assume hydroxide plant somewhere in Asia, and conversion opex of $3,000pt.

I have not included capex to fix existing plant(s) and expand spod production, nor have I included capex for hydroxide plant. But I do note, one of our investment partners, CATL if going to build (from memory) a 70kt plant in China for $280,000. Anyways, I don't think there would be much change out of $1 billion if PLS proceeded with said spod and hydroxide initiatives.

I'll hand it over to you, maybe work on average tax of 23% (not 30%) over the next 10 years, as there will be some non-cash tax deductions (i.e. plant depreciation).

See how you go, look forward to seeing your results, and yes there is plenty of peeps on here that can help if you get stuck, don't be shy.