Upon reading recent articles posted by others and referenced...

Upon reading recent articles posted by others and referenced below, it becomes really clear that the EV disruption is proceeding at a much faster pace than we try to deduce from monthly EV sales. These provide no information on future demand growth created by a huge increase in available models together with reductions in sticker price.

This is where the demand equation looks to be incorrect. See article in Bloomberg New Energy via link below. When the EV sticker price is less than an equivalent ICE vehicle, the demand will increase substantially. That point isn't that far off.

An extract from the article:

"Every year, that crossover point gets closer. In 2017, a BloombergNEF analysis forecast that the crossover point was in 2026, nine years out. In 2018, the crossover point was in 2024 — six years (or, as I described it then, two lease cycles) out."

"The crossover point, per the latest analysis, is now 2022 for large vehicles in the European Union. For that, we can thank the incredible shrinking electric vehicle battery, which isn’t so much shrinking in size as it is shrinking — dramatically — in cost. "

"Analysts have for several years been using a sort of shorthand for describing an electric vehicle battery: half the car’s total cost. That figure, and that shorthand, has changed in just a few years. For a midsize U.S. car in 2015, the battery made up more than 57 percent of the total cost. This year, it’s 33 percent. By 2025, the battery will be only 20 percent of total vehicle cost."

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...le-battery-shrinks-and-so-does-the-total-cost

BYD in China has just announced some very low cost models that have a very good range:

On September 2nd, BYD’s new EV, BYD e2, was officially launched. The official guide price is 89,800 – 119,800 yuan (~US$12,516 – US$16,678) , it offers four trims. BYD e2 is powered by a 70kW(93hp) electric motor and the NEDC range has two versions of 189miles(305km) and 251miles(405km). BYD e2 is a cost effective EV that is positioned below the BYD “Dynasty” lineup.

See full article here:

https://www.chinapev.com/byd/byds-new-ev-byd-e2-is-ready-in-china-market/

Over the next 18 months to two years we will see an explosion of new models from which to choose. The cost of battery electric cars will reduce and become very competitive in sticker price to ICE vehicles whilst demonstrating a much lower cost of ownership over 3 years or so.

The auto industries in Europe and the USA will need to accelerate development of desirable and competitively priced BEVs to combat the Chinese who will be driving an export market.

All the above bodes well for a substantial increase in the demand for battery raw materials. Demand which in my view has not been factored in by analysts. At present the supply line has had some hiccups as battery chemical conversion facilities are still expanding and building new plants.

I am wondering what the cross-over point will be at the start of 2020. Still 2022?