I've just been going back through some old threads from 3 years ago to work out what has changed over time with our thoughts on development of EVs, and how we could be so bullish back then.
In this thread from 2016 are some interesting points.....
From a Galaxy thread was this prediction for 2020 ............
So some of us tried to work out how much LCE would be needed........
Ozblue........... "If Tesla is building a relatively cheap EV with a 60Kwh battery of capacity, then most other makes will have to do likewise as range is what will sell. There will be some 30-40kg of LCE in EVs of limited range in some markets, but that will not be the average when you include Buses, Vans and Trucks in your EV average.
To get to a total of 17M EVs by 2020, would mean producing about 7M EVs/a by 2020. 7M X 60 = 420,000,000kg/a or 420,000t/a, add off grid and on grid battery storage, and we are easily past 600,000t/a (though some say storage use will be bigger than EV use) then add existing uses and laptops,tools, eV bikes etc and lithium batteries generally replacing ALL lead acid batteries, and you easily get to 800,000t NEEDED by 2020."
At the same time Macquarie Bank were forecasting just 400,000t of LCE needed by 2025, something we all scoffed at .....
"Mac Quack, stating only 400,000t by 2025 is beyond a joke. That could only happen if there was simply not enough lithium."
The reality is that development of EV has been a lot slower than a lot of us thought back in 2016, while obviously much higher than the analysts forecasts.
This year's use of LCE in total will be around 315,000t while next year, 2020, about 385,000t LCE, a lot less than the bullish predictions from 3 years ago.
We have to assume that companies were looking more towards the more bullish numbers painted by Tesla et al than those of Macquarie, with the reality being inbetween the 2.
The mines already built in WA (including Wodgina's 3 trains), have a capacity of 431,000t of LCE. Even if in 12 months time, the middle of 2020 they are running at 80% of capacity then WA 6% spodumene concentrate alone is still 344,800t of LCE. By the middle of next year I'd expect ALL of them capable of operating at 100% of capacity!!
* the GXY quarterly reported 56,000t of 6% spod concentrate, that is at a rate of above 100% of plant rating!!
The Mibra mine in Brazil (spodumene 90,000t of 6%) and around 160,000 of LCE (in both Li2CO3 and LiOH forms) from Brine production, clearly shows that production is way in excess of demand for next year.
2020 (WA mines at 80%) 344,000t + Brines Mibra etc 170,000t = 510,000t of LCE, way in excess of the prediction of 385,000 tonnes of demand.
All the main forecasters are using around 1,000,000t of LCE demand in 2025, which gives the figure of ~385,000 tonnes in 2020.
In a link I provided yesterday Roskill from end of June this year have Chinese production pegged at about 530 Gwh of battery production by 2025, and world use around 1Mt LCE in 2025. Benchmark Minerals, Joe Lowry, Albemarle, SQM all have the same type of forecast.
Growth rate of around 21%pa (for all lithium uses) gets us the following ..............
2018 .....................278,000t
2019 est ................315,000t
2020 est ...............385,000t
2021 est.................466,000t
2022 est.................564,000t
2023 est ................682,000t
2024 est ................825,000t
2025 est ................998,000t
Basically the existing capacity of lithium production of 610,000t of LCE has the amount required in 2022 already covered, with current expansions PLS st 2, Greenbushes st 3, KDR expected to be completed in 2020-1, have 2023 covered as well. This all assumes NO other new production from anywhere in the world, yet we know that brine production is increasing in the early 2020's from both SQM and ORE,plus there are a host of other projects out there, all hoping to get funding 'soon'.
One aspect about all the 'predicted' giga factories that are meant to come into production by 2023- 2025 to get to the large size of production, is how the investment dollars and the battery production predicted don't add up!! Large giga factories seem to cost about $US100-120M per Gwh of production, so investments like this one mentioned here .........
https://www.electrive.com/2019/02/04/catl-plans-up-100-gwh-battery-factory-in-germany/https://europe.autonews.com/suppliers/catl-hikes-investment-german-battery-plant" With realistic planning, we assume a demand of 100 GWh in the year 2025"
"Contemporary Amperex Technology, China's largest battery cell supplier, is increasing investment at its German battery plant to 1.8 billion euros (14.1 billion yuan) from a previous plan of 240 million euros to expand output."
......... are not adding up to the full cost of the large plant. It does however add up to phase 1 ......... "Under the previous plan, the factory was expected to start production in 2021 with initial annual production of 14 gigawatt-hours of lithium ion battery cells."
I suspect all the talk and articles about 1Twh plus of battery production by 2023 are in the same category as the 7M EVs in 2020, a lot of wishful thinking, but the money to react that goal just has not been invested.
(20min delay)
