I think 2020 will be the year where it all starts in earnest,...

I think 2020 will be the year where it all starts in earnest, but IMO WW production for 2019 will be flat y-o-y, with as you say the EU picking up the slack. Now, thats a positive form my perspective, given overall vehicle sales in recession (some call it peak ICE) and slow economic conditions.

Consensus is 1 mill units out of the EU in 2020, and China targeting 2 mill units. Add ROW units, say 500k units and we arrive at ~3.5 mill units, or 75% increase over 2019. I guess it also important to note that China overall battery gWh capacity deployed is up in 2019 over 2018, yet EV sales are down, a sign the batts are getting bigger.

UK EV sales going nuts, and the following graph suggesting osbourne effect in play;