Good News & Bad News, page-6369

Feeling good yesterday, I checked the Asian Metal site to see if Spod prices had improved yet. With recent falls in the value of the USD, I thought there may be a good chance, if only for that reason.

http://www.asianmetal.com/LithiumPrice/Lithium.html

Nope. In fact, down some 2.47%. Bloody hell, mate.

Ken spoke of low USD400s in the Quarterly Report. I noted BMI saying Spod prices were down to USD393 and someone on Twitter on no known repute, saying USD373 had been hit yesterday.

When will it end?

MS state Chinese Spod inventories fell 10% in June and down to 4.4 months supply in total now (after falling 20% in May). June imports down 21%. Looks like a Chinese spring cleaning before restocking occurs. This is despite GXY and PLS bother achieving last quarter guidance ... and raising sales guidance for the next quarter. Who is exporting less? Greenbushes? Why? What will ALBs next quarterly reveal about GBs? A supply disruption there could see Spod prices react.




Iron Ore prices fell as the Big 3 (4 if you include FMG) squeezed out Chinese miners who had break even costs of around $60pt. When prices fell to $30, the Chinese were forced to terminate production. Prices bounced back to $70. After seeing no restart from the Chinese (and the Brazilian problemo), prices then moved to $100. As an aside, reports this week that the Australian Government are budgeting in expectation of Iron Ore prices to halve this year.

As Ken mentioned at the RRS Seminar, over the past 2 years, Spodumene has been squeezing out Brine in the production of LiOH. At what point will this cycle complete? Who can say? Perhaps when Brine production is diverted (LFP, LM, SS?) as EV demand swamps available resources.

Could/would/should PLS make an all scrip offer for AJM? I just don't see how they can survive with their current debt burden and spod prices the way they are.